Two major economic indicators will be released in the autumn of 2025, shaping decisions on pensions, benefits, and general cost-of-living adjustments.
These figures, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), play a direct role in determining annual increases in state benefits and pensions.
Mid-September 2025 – UK Wage Growth Data
Each September, the ONS publishes data on wage growth across the UK, covering the period from May to July. This figure is crucial as it forms one part of the triple lock calculation for the state pension.
The triple lock ensures that the state pension increases by the highest of the following:
- Average earnings growth
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation
- 2.5% (a guaranteed minimum increase)
If wage growth is particularly strong, this could lead to a significant boost in pension payments from April 2026. However, businesses should also take note, as rising wages may put pressure on payroll costs, particularly in sectors reliant on lower-paid workers.
Mid-October 2025 – Inflation Announcement for September 2025
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for September 2025 will be announced in mid-October. This figure will determine how much the state pension and various working-age benefits will increase in April 2026.
If inflation remains high, pensioners and benefit claimants will see a larger-than-usual uplift, but businesses may also face higher costs due to rising wages and operational expenses.
The inflation announcement is particularly relevant for those managing fixed incomes, pension planning, and long-term financial commitments. It also plays a role in influencing interest rates, tax allowances, and broader economic policies.